Probability

Who wins, before the first dart

A chance for any two players over any format, first to 3 legs or first to 7 sets, from ratings built on 447,955 matches. Every possible final score, the fair price, and how the model has done against the bookmakers' closing prices.

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Any pairing, any format
Every final score priced
Title odds over any draw

Match-upThe top 50 rated players

Player v Player

Format, first to

Fair price

Most likely final scores

Ratings v Chance per leg

Matches behind the ratings: 447,955; every result since 1994
Players rated: 38,041; updated after every match
Same favourite as the market: 85.9%; over 10,397 priced matches
Gap to the closing price: 0.017; log loss, lower is closer

How a chance is worked out

Three steps, each tested against real results rather than assumed.

1A rating for every player

Each result moves both players' ratings, by more when the result is a surprise. 38,041 players carry one, updated within the hour of a match finishing.

2A chance of winning one leg

The gap between two ratings becomes a chance of winning a single leg. How much match length matters is measured on every match between established players, not guessed.

3The format played out

That leg chance is played out over the format asked for, legs or sets, giving the match chance, every possible final score and the expected number of legs.

Why the format mattersThe same pairing, Littler v Aspinall, over different lengths

First to 3 legs

76%

First to 6 legs

76%

First to 11 legs

76%

First to 7 sets

76%

A favourite is safer over a longer match, by as much as the archive shows and no more. Short formats are where the upsets live.

Does 70% mean 70%?

Every match between established players, grouped by the chance the model gave before it started, against how often that player won.

0-10%5.1%5

10-20%14.8%15

20-30%25.5%26

30-40%35.1%35

40-50%45.3%45

50-60%54.7%55

60-70%64.9%65

70-80%74.5%75

80-90%85.2%85

90-100%94.9%95

Chance givenHow often they won229,393 matches, both players with 20+ behind themBands run from 0-10% on the left to 90-100% on the right, won in per cent

Against the bookmakers

Log loss on 10,397 priced matches. Lower is better.

Closing price

0.606

Our ratings

0.628

Coin toss

0.693

The closing price is the hardest bar there is. The ratings sit 0.017 behind it without seeing a single price, and pick the same favourite 85.9% of the time.

See the full study in the Lab

World Championship - North African Qualifier

Each player's chances before a dart was thrown, over the draw as it was played, beside how far they went.

Finished 20 Sep

PlayerTitleFinalSemiResult

Peter Wachiuri24.2%33.0%45.9%Quarters

Peter Wanjii8.1%16.1%25.4%Semis

Benson Ngari7.3%15.0%25.1%Last 16

Charles Njuguna5.4%9.3%20.1%Quarters

Festus Chepkwony5.2%9.2%20.7%Semis

David Munyua4.8%10.9%19.9%Won

Manpreet Kalsi4.3%7.4%13.1%Last 32

Joseph Wanjohi4.0%9.0%15.6%Last 32

The winner was 4.8% beforehand. Every edition, through /v1/editions/{id}/outrights

Biggest upsets this week

Winners the model gave the least chance.

Cam Crabtree beat Luke Littler7%

Niek Tuik beat Steve Lennon12%

Niek Tuik beat Steve Lennon13%

Every chance, by API

The match-up above is one call. So is everything else on this page.

Read the docs

/v1/probabilityAny two players, any formatAnalyst /v1/matches/{id}/probabilityA real fixture, with the market beside itAnalyst /v1/editions/{id}/outrightsTitle and round chances over the drawAnalyst /v1/simulate/bracketThe same over a draw you supplyAnalyst /v1/props/180sHow many 180s a match should seeAnalyst /v1/markets/calibrationPrices against what happenedLive

GET /v1/probability?player_id=pl_VEB8HM&opponent_id=pl_PMAW5J&legs=11

{
  "format": "First to 11 legs",
  "players": [
    { "name": "Luke Littler", "rating": 2387, "chance": 0.56, "fair_odds": 1.79 },
    { "name": "Luke Humphries", "rating": 2345, "chance": 0.44, "fair_odds": 2.27 }
  ],
  "leg_chance": 0.516,
  "expected_legs": 18.3,
  "scores": [
    { "score": "11-9", "chance": 0.093 },
    { "score": "11-8", "chance": 0.091 },
    ... every possible final score
  ]
}

Analyst plan

Every probability endpoint, from $149 a month

Match and format probabilities, final-score prices, title and round odds over any draw, 180s props, and where the model and market disagree. Everything on the Live plan comes with it: live scores, closing prices and the full archive.

Any pairing in any format
Title odds over every finished draw
Your own draws through the bracket simulator
Model against market, fixture by fixture
Ratings snapshots for any date

See the Analyst plan

Start with the ratings, free

Head-to-heads, results and every player's record on a free key. Add the Analyst plan when you want the chances themselves.

Get a free key See the plans

Any match-up

GET /v1/probability?format=sets&sets=7

On the Analyst plan.