Brackets, simulated

How often does the favourite actually win a knockout, and how often is it an outsider?

State
Next
Not run yet
Repository
darts-bracket-sim
Published when it runs

Method

Fixed before the tool touched the data.

Every major draw since 2016, simulated from the ratings before the first match, against who actually won.

Run it yourself

The tool is published with the study's first run.

darts-bracket-sim
$ python -m bracketsim
  asks for your key once and keeps it in .key
  checks it against /v1/usage before any work
  caches what it fetches under data/, never fetched twice
  add --json for the result as a document

The rules every study keeps

Darts research is easy to flatter. These keep ours honest.

No look-ahead

Every figure uses only what was known before the match. Ratings are replayed in date order, never fitted on the future.

Out of sample

Anything tuned is tuned on one period and scored on another. A result that only holds in the data it was built on is not published as one.

Failures published

If a study finds nothing, the page says so, with the numbers. Not every question has the answer people hope for.

API only

The tools read the public endpoints, nothing else, so what you run at home is exactly what produced the page.

Got a question for the archive?

Suggest a study and we will tell you whether the data can answer it. The good ones become the next page here, with your question at the top.

Run the live study yourself
python -m ratingsvsmarket
From the darts-ratings-vs-market repository. Priced matches need a key on any paid plan.